This project will establish, over a five year period, a system for Sample Vital Registration with Verbal Autopsy (SAVVY) to provide annual, age/sex and cause-specific mortality estimates, including mortality attributable to HIV/AIDS in the 18-59 year age group. The SAVVY will be based on a sentinel population distributed across Tanzania so as to provide a nationally-representative estimate. The total sample size should be large enough to detect a relative change of 20% in HIV/AIDS mortality over five years.
A two-stage probability sampling approach was employed and 23 districts were selected with probability proportional to size (PPS); and within these, we randomly selected 10 villages/enumeration areas, comprising around 7,000 households (approximately 35,000 people). This will yield a total national SAVVY population of approximately 805,000, which is expected to detect 600 – 1,000 HIV/AIDS deaths per annum. Reporting of deaths will be done by supervised community informants, followed up by verbal autopsy and coding of cause of death using the international standard verbal autopsy approach and ICD10 classification. Denominators will be determined by conducting censuses during year 1 and year 4, following the SAVVY methodology. Denominators for year 2, 3 and 5 will be estimated using established populations projections methods. The system will permit annual estimation of the national number, rate and proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths in the 18-59 year age group, stratified into urban/rural and male/female sub-groups. In addition to population-based estimates of AIDS mortality, the system will provide a platform that may be employed for diverse HIV/AIDS research and other health initiatives.
Project implementation will be led by Ifakara Health Institute (IHI), supported by the National Bureau of Statistics, the National Institute of Medical Research (NIMR-Mwanza) and in close consultation with the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. IHI will take overall responsibility for project planning, management and financial oversight. National Bureau of Statistics will provide technical assistance on sampling methodology and data analysis, quality-assurance of SAVVY reports and supportive supervision from NBS. NIMR-Mwanza will provide HIV-AIDS technical expertise and will supervise sample districts lying within geographical reach. Project implementation will be planned in phases, starting in year 1 (2009/10) and reaching full scale in year 5 (2013/14).